they are manufactured firearm. they are legal. .. couple of young men negotiate the possible purchase of a firearm from the licensed

retailers that they are specifically looking at these here at the bottom with the regular inventory being offered at a private sale for $2,600. lord only knows what the price of the rifles would be today. it's probably doubled. it is legal to be simultaneously and in the same place operating as a licensed retailer and in a private party. >> i want to preface this by talking about the statement i believe to be true. i think it is true that the great majority of the private parties who sell firearms through this legal process as i think it is great from the majority of licensed retailers have no interest whatsoever in furnishing firearms for criminal purposes. i believe that. i'm not making that up, but it's clear to me there are some who don't care. there are some who actively

facilitate the business and i know where i speak about this. this gentleman this is a picture very slightly leered. these four men had been cruising the gun show in phoenix had everybody they could buy from. they were almost out of money and they approached the retailer, they approached a private party in the upper left and negotiated the purchase price. no one among them had enough money to make the purchase, but they did when they pulled their cash, so this gentleman -- they are partly incumbent as they were pulling by the guns and magazines they had already acquired that day. no waiting period, no background check. and as they walked out before there were six handguns and as many magazines as they could

carry. and by following them with the two phoenix game officers following these gentlemen shaking their heads saying they are red to take them out in the street and sell them and i have learned that the modeling equivalent in the critical moment is having your memory chip philip at that critical moment so why don't have those pictures. we did a formal comparative study. we looked at shows in california which regulate private party sales as i've described the separately regulate gun shows and puts under cover crops and gun shows and everybody knows it. they are boring from the perspective and they compare shows in california to show the four states that have none of those regulations. two of them are next door and all four of them are very important sources. and you've already seen the conclusions.

basically the show is different in that you're not about to do in california didn't happen in california and a lot to do those things and other places by the party sales, rapid-fire sequence purchasing and so on. one finding i did not occur to expect that emerged from the observational work and that is something that i don't mean this geographically we might call diffusion of benefit. on a per hour of observation i was the observer on the per hour observation time how did i average the stock purchases? stop purchases which mayor bloomberg accurately described as the strawbridge's that man deserves all the praise that you give them under the federal law they're much more common in the state's that don't do much of the gun shows and in the state's

generating some publicity i heard that open air market that i've shown you pictures of have basically closed with the promoter saying you can't sell guns there so i went back and this time shooting the video from the united corps but indeed they have absolutely no gun sales but everybody has congregated about 150 feet up against the building. he was relocated about a 32nd flock. the other thing that happened, and jamie was kind enough to mention they were kind of winding down the office in the city of new york sent a team of private detectives out and we talked to cameras and we talked on how to try to avoid detection and talked about some gun shows we might want to go to. i had one guy walking around with a camera and these guys were pros. the allies and the years of engagement that said you can't

talk to anybody but they were not so hampered and the shot a video and i'm going to show it to you. >> i'm going to let this speak for itself. >> i need to see your id. >> no background checks?

>> get the idea? now, what they did -- can you get my powerpoint batt? the difference between -- they identify the retailers who were engaged -- two-thirds of the retailers they targeted failed what they called the integrity test. it's a highly selective population. so much for its focus on the gun shows. i would like to look at the following things. gun shows account for a small proportion of all sales. take my word for it. i've been getting the high side of that time and i'm just going

to motor on to read most sales at gun shows are made by licensed retailers. we have data from more than one study to support this, and simply giving them that means the private party sales have a gun shows have to be a smaller proportion coming yet of all gun sales in the united states. and we also note from atf investigations the licensed retailers are the primary source of the crime involved in gun shows. so what does that mean? it means this: i would like to declare today -- i'm going to do it and go home and feel good about it -- today is the day we stop talking about closing the gun show as a loophole to regulating private party sales. closing the gun show loophole will not take care of private party seals because most of them occur elsewhere. closing the gun show loophole takes care of the problem associated with a gun shows because most of that stuff associated with a gun shows involves licensed retailers and not private parties. and i stick to my tie and give you one last thing real quickly.

i mentioned earlier that i sometimes draw an allergy between gun shows and zoos. it occurred to me getting ready for the talking doing background work maybe it is time for me to draw an analogy between gun shows and museums. i am new to this and i'm going to show you an example. i didn't see it being covered elsewhere. i want to talk for just a second about the guns on the internet. january 3rd about 7:30 in the morning in my own apartment with my cup of coffee brewing i went shopping for guns. i went to arms list which is one of several sites one can buy firearms on the internet. as in california but coming here, so i decided i'm going to shop for guns in maryland. so i clicked off and got the listing of all kinds of guns in maryland. but i was selective.

a selective shopper. so i decided that i would shop for handguns and maryland, and that got me a long listing of handguns in maryland. but maybe i'm a prohibited person. maybe i'm buying a gun with criminal intent and i don't want a paper trail. maybe i'm just a privacy guy triet but i'm going to selectively choose private party sellers, which i can do at arms lest. and here's a list of handguns available from private party sellers in maryland. down at the bottom i see something that strikes my interest and i click on it. and up comes a fairly long description of a scorpion semi-automatic handgun. fais cool down, there is a picture down at the bottom of the scroll on the same page. the price is high waited for me. its $600, it reminds me this is a private sar party sales and here is the contact button. fi scroll down further i see a

picture of the gun and another contact button and i am not going to go into -- i will go this far to the icy the message where i can send an e-mail and gives me some terms of use and so forth. this particular gun is a 32 caliber. it's a small caliber gun. it's sort of scary looking. but if i were a series of bad guy i would have no interest in this done but it proves the point that i could meet this guy anyplace. his house, my house, mcdonald's. it doesn't matter. nobody is going to know. why go to a gun show if i can do this? thank you very much. [applause] >> thank you. i'm going to get in the next presentation where i'm going to be talking again the general theme is keeping guns from

criminals. the role of universal background checks and other forms of firearm seller accountability. notice my terminology here. firearms seller, accountability debate i like the ring of that, people talk about gun control, dunn construction is whatever. to me what we lack in this country is any form of accountability in the firearms law and i think that is a sort of direction that we should be headed. in our thinking going forward. several co-authors for the stock, jon vernick, beth and vern. in the federal law of course the private show local -- not private show but private seller loophole, pardon me. other weaknesses, however, we talk less about is that we have a lot of laws that protect the

licensed gun dealers from inspections, from license revocations, prosecutions, lawsuits coming and even general embarrassment by hiding the data about the number of guns connected to different gun dealers and there's an enormous disparity. some gun dealers sell far more guns that in that in the hands of criminals than do other licensed dealers. we also have no system of licensing and registration for the nurse. and importantly, and this is something that i don't think it's talked about much is the requirement to report if your done has been stolen or lost the reason that is relevant is it gets into the notion of accountability. if you are done that you purchased is subsequently recovered for a criminal -- if

you can simply say that a gun must have been stolen people that actually do the investigations find it very hard when they have something they can charge people with that they at least didn't go to the procedures to report their gonads being stolen. garen alluded to this. they come from a survey of inmates in state prisons who have committed the reason they are in jail as they committed a crime with a handgun. roughly as said, roughly 80% of obtained firearms through the transaction and in all likelihood was not regulated. there was no requirement for background checks systems to read the last columns in the table look at those that were

not legally prohibited when they made their acquisition of the handgun, and what i find particularly interesting and often isn't discussed or considered is even though there were not prohibited, the vast majority find it advantageous to require their handguns in some transaction that wouldn't be documented. as a, in addition to thinking about the idea of accountability in our system isn't only to identify those that are prohibited from being able to access the done but it's also a measure of accountability as it turns up in crime if you can connect that to an individual i think that individual will be more careful about whether he uses a gun in crime or transfers it to someone who might use it in crime.

they think about with a licensed dealers you know from investigation that anything done for the alcohol tobacco and firearms years ago that licensed gun dealers are a very important channel of guns being diverted into the market and it's a proportion of dealers you don't know how you cut the data one to 5% of them account for the majority of the guns recovered in crime and there's some work that is done you know that enormous discrepancy across the gun dealers and the variability of the rate at which they are recovered in crime having more guns or the demographics of the clientele and the local crime rates, so to me it suggests that there are simply differences in the sales practices that make

some dealers target's to coin the term bad guy magnets. we also know from some research that we've done that braga will cover in his talk next that the undercover stings of gun dealers that have a lot of traces to crime they find blatantly illegal sales from the dealers. so we know the federal system lacks a lot in the terms of accountability. thankfully we have least have some states that do go further trying to have a system of accountability. they do have universal makarov checks, permit to purchase licensing. this is when other than simply go to your friendly gun dealer and a pullout of for me and say i will take one of these and two of these, you actually go to law enforcement agency where you are photographed, fingerprinted and if you think about the situation of the straw purchaser, probably

far easier to recruit someone to make an illegal sale if you don't have to first to go to a law enforcement agency to get a permit. there are also firearm registries that have been diluted to earlier. sefton and the loss reporting. while the federal government licensed firearms dealers some states also require their own licensing regulations which is important because as i alluded to before the federal law is written to the advantage of the dealers to reduce accountability also an antitrafficking policy as the notion of one gun per person per month to prevent balk sales of the traffickers might prefer to read the last thing i will mention is it is important to remember when you look at state law that in the majority

of the cases they only are placing these additional accountability measures on handguns and it's a far even less regulated environment. so we take you quickly to a few studies that we've done that i think shows some very consistent patterns here with firearms of four accountability measures and the diversion of guns to criminals. the first one we published in general were ripping talf in 2009. it was a study where we took the crime done to 54 cities that had done the comprehensive trade practices, had been in place in those cities. we looked at the state down laws that in addition to that we actually did a survey of state and local law enforcement agencies to see whether what practices they engaged in with respect to the oversight of licensed gun dealers and we did some regression and all this is

where we control for a number of factors including and the proximity to the other states with weak gun laws. when you look at the state having strong done the other registrations by itself and actually did not affect the diversion of guns to criminals. it was only having vose laws in concert with a practice of in those agencies audit inspections and oversight of those dealers which i think is quite interesting and important we also found states that regulated private firearm seals these are almost always does regulate handgun sales. the lower level of a version of guns to criminals and associated with that policy.

places that had a permit to purchase system of licensing that also offered law enforcement some degree of discretion that they could deny a particular application even if someone met the criteria if the other reason to believe that they represented a risk. vlore rate of the diversion of criminals in such associated with of those policies. so that was a cross section will look at this sort of comparing the state to state. what is more convincing if we think about the cause all attribution is looking at the change over time. now, in many of the is the state laws in question there hasn't been a lot of change in recent years where we have had better data from trace data and an exception however is missouri recently dropped, repealed its loss for the permit to purchase licensing of handgun owners on

august 28th 2007 they did away with their permit to purchase system, and included in that, they did away with a background checks and record keeping for private sales as well. so, after all law was repealed you could make the kind of transaction that was at the gun showing or other places. also important even the transactions with licensed gun dealers were different because again, you know water had to go to a law enforcement agency to get the permit. so, what we did is looked at a, an indicator of the diversion of guns to criminals, this idea of the short integral between the retail sale and the recovery of crime and looked at it particularly as it related to when the change in the sales practices are an excuse me, the sales policies occur. we also look at the change in the ratio of the out-of-state

gun stood in state funds, where they are coming from with strict laws like the permit to purchase system tend to have a higher share of guns coming from outside of the state because there is a relative scarcity of such guns when you have tighter more comprehensive regulations. this is the hardest i will show you so i'm going to walk you through this. these are short into girls between the retail sale and a recovery in kind. the yellow bar is to lead three months between the sale and recovery from the criminal crime scene. the red bar is 12 months and then the sort of aqua blue is one to 12 years. now recall the policy was repealed in late august of 2007. so when you should start to see is a change if the policy causes

more diversion of guns to criminals you should start to see a change in the yellow are beginning in 2007 but then goes up dramatically after that and that's precisely what you see in this graph. fusion also see that the three to 12-month guns should begin to go up around 2008. guess what that precisely what they do they shoot up quite dramatically beginning in 2008 and stay at a much higher level laughter that. if you have the change in the seals policy you should start to see increasing in 2009. we see very clearly if you just sort of total this up we have more than a twofold increase in these very short sale to crime integral guns that suggest diversion to criminals as a response to the change in sales

practices. that's no comparison group. maybe that is a national trend and phenomena. it's actually the opposite. the integral between the sales decline in their red graf represented the national average has actually been increasing at the same time that the crime has been decreasing in missouri and you will see that deceleration in the time to crime accelerating after the policy went into place. this is in state to out-of-state a nearby vessel was a misery and read from everywhere else and as predicted, if it is going to contribute to more guns diverted

you can see the fork in the road that you see. no longer are the guns needed from out of state because the current state policy is making it for the criminals and traffickers to get the guns directly at home or missouri. i will share some data that is internal, what happens inside the state. what about -- we talked also with guns traveling across the state borders so we look at the current state done policies and firearm accountability measures and whether they are related to how many guns a state exports to other states again this is a cross section of design from 2009 that is posted on the atf website, and we created a measure of exported crime guns

to criminals per the population cap at the export trade. we controlled not only for the sestak gun laws but also done ownership border population in states with strong girls that might attract the guns coming across the border as well as bordering canada and mexico also how much out migration because maybe the gun owners are moving from state aid to be simply to take their guns with them. so we control for that. if you look at the data in the export rates, you see enormous disparities the states of the highest rates of exporting to read mississippi, west virginia, kentucky alabama and south carolina. when i first looked at this i was thinking this has to have something to do with being in the southeastern athletic conference, the ncaa. it was my hypophysis.

i am not sure. we see california, new york a fraction of that rate at which they are exporting the guns used in crime. when you do the regression analysis to see which of these are most important, you find the most powerful deterrent to exporting the crime guns is to having this discretionary permit to purchase system. but even having a nondiscretionary permitting process where you actually have to show up at a law enforcement agency reduce export rates by 55%, statistically significant, and importantly for the policies that we are talking about now being considered as private sales regulations reduced version across the state lines by 30%, and by similar magnitude, the theft and false reporting while also decrease exporting of crime guns.

something we have not talked about is the bands of what some people would call junk bonds these are inexpensive poorly made handguns as shown as over represented in crime. those because presumably you can buy a lot of cheap guns with not a lot of investment and if you take it to the right state you can get a marked up four to five times higher than you purchased them with. there were some that were unrelated. they were listed here, nondiscretionary purpose. they didn't have the measure of actual enforcement here to read one gun a month that was a hypothesized to be important for interstate trafficking.

we shall also the point estimate was suggested in a 19% reduction, it wasn't statistically significant. i wanted to end with a little bit of data looking at the guns that recovered in mexico and look at the set of laws for the states bordering mexico. these are the four states that border mexico, california, mexico, texas, and the last three that i mentioned have basically none of the laws of interest, i'm sorry. i went too fast. however, california does licensed gun dealers and allow inspections not conducting background checks. today to regulate private transactions with handguns and a ban assault weapons which of course are very important respect to the mexican cartels

and also one down per customer per month. so, what does the exporting to mexico look like. california did not export nearly that many guns per capita as to arizona, new mexico and texas. briefly limitations of the studies for the missouri study most were cross sectional comparisons. in some cases we didn't have the individual level trace data that i would love to have built our hard to come by because of the restrictions and the most important thing is on certain relationships between whether reducing their versions will lead to reductions in gun violence. i've got to think personally that if you have fewer guns going to criminals that

ultimately you will be able to have lower rates of gun violence as far as a policy implications to the universal dhaka out checks clearly in study after study seem to divert, reduced version of guns to criminals less talked about but more important or theft and a loss reporting and the jump done bense and some of the findings indicate doing a better job over division oversight would greatly reduced version. so that is actually a good segue to the next talk. jon vernick is quick to talk with us about policies without risky practices of gun dealers. [applause]

>> i'm the could order for the center of the gun violence year of hopkins the dangerous sales practices of gun dealers and daniel is like a water. it may be a surprising sort of terrorism that people don't think clearly about always that nearly all kinds of guns in the united states, all would get used in crime were sold by a licensed gun dealer. i agree with garen that most gun dealers are not. there is evidence that anthony and others have generated about 1% of the licensed gun dealers

in the united states are responsible for more than half of the guns traced to crime. garen showed that isn't explained by the sales volume more location. when i state that to my students or others i usually say that sounds like it would be bad news trade there is a small number of bad apples out there supporting the guns to criminals but we might think of it in the sort of good news. it means that if we can focus enforcement efforts on a relatively small number of dealers in light of the opportunity for very substantial payout. now the flat side of that is in studies done by sue susan sorensen more broadly if you surf the gun dealers and ask them are you willing to make a sale under conditions that might seem questionable the what sound like a straw purchase anywhere

from 20 to 50% of them are willing to say yes. anthony braga has also taught us that in atf traffic investigations the longest source of trafficking is gun dealers. so as the folks have said, if you are in the business of selling guns in the united states, you have to have a license from the federal government and the federally licensed gun dealers in the u.s. some states as daniel mentioned also require a state license. how many states in the u.s. require the person who cuts your hair is licensed? and increasingly i will let met a relevant form of licensing for me. but how many states require a cosmetologist to be licensed?

the answer is all of them, all 50. how many states require a gun dealer and license? the answer is 17. 17 states in the district of columbia and the wide swaths of the country have no licensing why should you care if the state's licensed gun dealers if there is a federal license? the existence of the state license gives local law enforcement and state law enforcement some leverage that they can apply to the gun dealers if the states are able to inspect the gun dealers and identify the problems they can pull the state license without having to wait for the federal bureau of alcohol tobacco and firearms to do something about. and in fact unfortunately at the federal level of those inspections are severely

limited. a law enacted in 1986 called the federal firearms protection act limits atf to just one routine inspection of gun dealers per year. most dealers are inspected much less often in fact because atf doesn't have the funds allocated to it to engage in a more frequent inspection. one estimate years ago is the average bond dealer could be expected or could expect to be inspected once every 17 years. so not a great deal of risk you are a gun dealer and selling guns off the look sort out the back door. just two states, two of the 17 states are licensed gun dealers mandate regular inspections of dealers and other states to permit inspections but only to as you see here that mandate inspections. as daniel mentioned research that he and i and other colleagues have done so digest

the states that do license dealers that have other kinds of strong dever oversight all like record keeping laws and which in fact do conduct regular inspections are must lead to become much less likely to be associated with the intrastate trucking within the state licensing of the state level can actually make a big difference. that is in trust eight trafficking. how about interstate trafficking they have the dealer licensing and just permit inspections the rate of exporting crime guns to of your state is half that of states that don't have these kinds and addendum this points out a problem that you'll hear

about over and over that of the mayor highlighted in his morning presentation which is as good as some are and can be they are dramatically affected by the weaker law around them of the other states that are exporting crime guns in to them and you will recall the then mayor bloomberg was saying that 85% of new york city's bonds come from out-of-state which again is why this summit focuses largely on what we can do at the federal level, the federal policy. that doesn't mean state policy isn't important. it is. but federal policy that applies to all states can make an enormous difference. okay. so what can you do about some of these bad apple gun dealers? we did some research that looked at with a handful of cities try

to do. chicago and in detroit and gary indiana in the late 1990's conducted undercover stings of gun dealers they had identified as supplying the crime guns to those cities. when they caught some of the gun dealers making illegal sales and you can see the police in conducting goes undercover stings they posed as gang members to make illegal strong sales and a blatantly hinted they were looking to settle a score or they were buying of a gun for their boyfriend if it was a female. so having identified those folks, chicago in particular indicted them, brought lawsuits against the dealers, distributors and manufacturers. there were also lawsuits in detroit but the intervention was

a little bit less robust. so, what did we find? basically the flow of new guns to criminals following the stings, lawsuits and enforcement practices was very much lower in chicago and detroit whether you look just at the institutes licensees or all licensees. it was sending a message to the dealers that it isn't business as usual. that your risk is increased if you are going to engage in the danger this and the unlawful practices. and we saw no change in comparison cities also in the midwest as and semidey, cleveland, st. louis that didn't engage so it isn't merely some secular trend that was happening over time. one of the tools associated was

not just bringing criminal cases or doing this thing but also suing them. these are businesses and they are very receptive to what impact on the bottom line to making money ultimately. in addition to the lawsuit associated with the sting there were more than about 40 municipal lawsuits filed against the gun industry beginning in 1998. they argued in part the gun makers and gun dealers could have done a better job of keeping the guns from the kernels. some of the lawsuits were dismissed and others were allowed to proceed. but in october of 2005, george w. bush signed into law a federal law called the protection of the lawful commerce act. you know you have a lot of power in congress when you don't even

have to come up with a snappy acronym to get it enacted. it was enacted in 2005 and a tough speech today the enormous protection for these kind of lawsuits to be whether they were in conjunction with them or not. they gave them a very broad immunity from liability. the kind of immunity that essentially no other product manufacturer in the united states enjoys. they didn't provide people that were harmed with any kind of alternative compensation scheme and they even said that there but retroactively applied to the pending lawsuits that had to be dismissed and in fact they were and as a result the public health function of lawsuits and litigation in general, something that steve taught us about for many years was eroded.

there were some relatively narrow exceptions to the plcaa that allowed the lawsuits to proceed nevertheless. and new york city took advantage of one of those exceptions. one of those exceptions is the basis of the lawsuits that the dealer was knowingly making any illegal sales. so, as mayor bloomberg alluded to this morning in his opening presentation, new york city used crime gun trace data to identify a bunch of dealers that were disproportionately supply and the guns that ultimately got picked up from criminals in new york city today engaged in the undercover investigations of those dealers. 27 of them were caught making illegal sales and new york city brought lawsuits against them.

25 of them ultimately settled and agreed to dramatically change their sales practices. if they agreed to be supervised by the court-appointed special master there would make sure that they had implemented these ways to make it harder for the straw purchases and other kinds of illegal sales to occur. so daniel webster and i and others have been looking at the effect of those agreements and the diversion to the new york city criminals by the ten dealers that we studied was dramatically reduced, 80% reduction you don't see that kind of enormous reduction in diversion for other kinds of gun violence prevention interventions. so again, targeting the small number of dealers that are disproportionately responsible for supplying the guns to criminals has the potential for

enormous benefits. but this kind of information targeting those dealers relies upon access to the crime done trace data that tells us the dealers are in fact supplying guns to criminals polka. you've heard about the tiahrt amendment named for the congressman who edited the language beginning in 2003 to the bureau of firearms appropriation language the amendment has evolved some overtime but its major provisions today require the dealers to conduct a physical inventory of their store as part of an inspection to make sure that their stock winds up with their sales records and they are not selling guns out the back door.

the trace data cannot be supplied to the public directly or to the researchers and the background check information has to be destroyed within 24 hours. we are hoping that we will see some recommendations coming out of the commission with regard coming and we have done some research that looks at some of the effects. there was a milwaukee area gun store called badger amro and a report came out and in may of 1999 showing diabolo was the number one in the nation and the sale of crime guns and not just in wisconsin or milwaukee that number one in the nation. in fact, the supply fully half of milwaukee's's crime guns

carried so after that report which came out that frankly embarrassed badger as it should have, badger announced that it would no longer sell these saturday night special guns that daniel mentioned before. it wouldn't sell those kinds of small and poorly made handguns commonly used in crime. so that's 1999. and then along comes the tihart amendment from 2003 to 2006 so this gave a nice opportunity to see what happened first when badger made its decision to stop selling these guns that are disproportionately favor by some criminals and then what happened after the tihart protection schaenman. i will follow the lead as i do in all things and show you this

is when the sales policy change occurred and we are looking at the number of guns diverted to criminals but any year of retail sale that is a measure of gun trafficking and without even knowing the scale, badger is in the dark line you can see what happens after the change in sales policy. again embarrassed by the traced the the the number of guns diverted drops dramatically compared to the pre-intervention period and then what happens after the amendment comes? the tihart amendment in protecting badger from the public disclosure, some kinds of trace data the natural experiment as the natural experiment shows no longer fearing this kind of public and navigation sees the number of guns that they are supplying to the criminals within a year dramatically goes back up.

so the national experiment that doesn't have a happy ending but we are hoping that the data like this helps the commission and others to see exactly why the amendment is so pernicious. i will see if i can get us two minutes to getting closer back on time here. what does all this mean? firearm dealers are an important source of guns for criminals even if most criminals aren't going directly to a gun dealer to buy the gun. again they are the first source of guns that to get out into the world and if it is a strong purchase that ultimately wind is up in the hands of a criminal by focusing on the gun dealer we can make a difference through dealer licensing through

enhanced of dealers we can address illegal trafficking but there are legal obstacles that persist like the fire owners protection act, like the tihart amendment and like the protection of the unlawful commerce. they are not insurmountable but our ability to curtail the dangerous practices of some dealers without these federal and legal obstacles. thanks very much. [applause] >> the next speaker is dr. anthony braga of harvard university, and denney has been an expert for decades now to address the violence the traffic inside shot about the day discouraging criminal

acquisition and use of guns as well. [applause] >> before i start i want to acknowledge that i wrote this paper with my good friend who will be making some comments after i finish. essentially i will be making an argument to you the steps that need to be taken in order to support the effective supply-side enforcement strategy. the basic idea behind the supply side enforcement is that you want to discourage or reduce criminal acquisition and use of firearms by increasing the price of acquiring the firearm and that price could be the price on the street when they are purchasing firearms or it could be what economists call the effective price of making a transaction which is the amount of time and hassle that they

face in trying to locate somebody that is trying to sell them at gun. it can increase either the idea would be that they would economize on the amount of time they are carrying guns, using guns and this would reduce violence on the streets. and one of the basic perspectives of this approach, especially on the current legislative climate is that you are trying to reduce gun crime by keeping the guns from falling into the wrong hands, that of the bad guys that are legally prescribed from having a gun, while at the same time of infringing on the rights of the good guys, those that are legally entitled to have firearms. when you look where do criminals get guns from, you see a large suggestion that many are stolen. this is true. theft is a problem and there are other things we can do about theft working with local police departments. but you do have a noteworthy portion of guns recovered in crime that have been recently

diverted from illegal firearms commerce that you can i think that strategic interventions in place that can reduce the supply lines of guns to criminals and a pretty direct way. i'm going to read some of the evidence that suggests that legal commerce is incredibly leakey and the gun traffickers exploit the system and represent important pathways to which criminals get guns and then i will summarize some of the research that is that shows the market interventions do in fact have some impact. we don't know whether those impact yet translated into violence reductions gains on the streets but it's time we started to develop the body of knowledge because there is a lot of evidence that suggests that there really could. then i'm going to frame six recommendations for the supply side strategy for atf in

particular how they go about gun traffickers and it's the primary law enforcement agency that regulates and enforces the nation's federal firearm law and essentially they are fighting this fight with one arm tied behind their back and the need a lot more support in order to be as effective as they can be. now i'm not going to go through all the details. i just want to summarize the different studies that have been done not only using the atf investigation data with other studies that have been done by people in the room. but it's important to recognize that the atf trace data in particular and investigation data as well do have their limits, for example because of the current restrictions. atf trace data only gets you to the first retail sales in most states you're not going to know what happens after the first sale and that is a blind spot because i believe you want the

most recent transaction and recovery in crime. there are other limits to the data and represents what the agency when they do their jobs, but the investigator and report on and in that recommend against the attorney to prosecute. so it's pretty much what they know and you are missing what they might not know in terms of that data. but that despite the limits you can get in effect trying to figure out what is going on, to understand the market dynamics and also to get a sense for whether interventions have worked. the national academy of science firearms looked at the data and a set of long as you use it with the appropriate care, acknowledge its limits, and on deily use the data that has been generated from the jurisdictions that are comprehensively tracing all of the firearms so you have a reasonable sample of gone stark recovered from the streets in the crime that you can use

that data to do some generalizations. as both jon and daniel have discussed new guns are disproportionately recovered in crime. this is an important indicator that you have a flow of guns going from the legal commerce into the hands of criminals and many of these guns when you look at who the first purchaser wasn't revealed that possessor was coming you have a change of hand suggesting that not only is it moving quickly from the dealer onto the streets and it's the recovery of law enforcement and crime but also changing hands very rapidly as well. beyond the sales volume as he was suggesting some licensed dealers are disproportionately frequent sources of firearms and i wholeheartedly agree that fundamentally this is good news. this is where we should be enforcing our -- we should be focusing our resources on these identifiable risks to shut down

pipelines, the work that susan sorensen has done and katherine has done surveying and interviewing licensed dealers have shown that there are licensed dealers under the test conditions willing to participate and make the sales. that's important information. on average roughly about one third of all of the guns recovered in the particular jurisdiction came from that community. the remainder have come from somewhere else in terms of the first purchases but in fact that varies depending on the community that you're looking at. someone like new york as a smaller number that originated from that particular community, somewhere like houston or new orleans. much larger and that is a factor of the loose gun control law in the good jurisdiction. it's well documented the crime guns moved from states with weak gun control all these damn the states with tighter gun control

lobbyists. for example my hometown of boston we have the iran pipeline, 95 states, north carolina, self carolina, georgia and florida, virginia the general double that for the effort. we have another one-third of our guns coming, not quite one-third of that 25% of the guns coming from new hampshire, maine and vermont the printing and crimes in boston and only about one-third of the guns originated from within massachusetts. ..

sometimes criminals burglarizing hate and take inventory and unwrapped the the the inventory shows up on streets in cities. and often, it's not the illegal drug trade. you can trace them. you don't have the rapid sale of drugs on the street that you have insurance. you're not looking at something that looks a bit kiley cartel. the average drug trafficking involves very small numbers of firearms. at least 60% the last time atf

did a comprehensive survey of their crime trafficking investigations about the illegal diversion of 20 apart your firearms. there were some large-scale traffickers. the biggest pretend at 11,000, but relatively reappeared this investigations that did involve a gun dealer diverted about 250 guns, much larger because of the access. but the atf seizes guns they know what he recovered and crying. that is what the coke on marcus looks like, at least three quake three minute survey of the literature. now the other big of important information is that there is a developing body of knowledge that we need to intervene in denmark it, the downmarket dynamic shifting this is important information because of a lot of folks think it's futile, but you can't do

anything about pathways through which criminals acquire guns. .india know what to research that a lacuna undercover police things on lawsuit in detroit and chicago in the important thing and there was the number of new guns that it changed hands, recovered and crime dropped dramatically as a result and no walkie when it ways shown to be the number one originator, they change their part to save with the number of new kinds plummeted also. the boston police department, atf failed in u.s. watching gun trafficking enforcement action against recently acquired diverted within massachusetts and out-of-state dealers showed

they had a 25% reduction in crime at the proportion with the new implementation of the strategy and that was different than time to time trends in other similar studies throughout the country. you can make impacts if you focus on them. other studies suggest these effects are so. the brady act talk about a study with him, looking not after the passage of the brady act. and those guns that were recovered and chicago after the brady act had a noteworthy shift in the series of guns for their first purchased after the brady act was implemented. the number one state was mississippi once brady was implemented in folks going to buy new friends in mississippi

had to tear pass criminal background check and generate paperwork on the transaction. there is no competitive advantage of going to mississippi in a longer, so the number of guns recovered from that street dwindled down from 20% to 3% after the implementation of that law. so there's reason to believe that if you are able to launch an attack on illegal firearms markets, trying to identify gun traffickers and apprehend and prosecute that it could shut down the supply lines of guns for criminals. unfortunately, one of the many reasons and hasn't been fully tested with the limited given the current struggles to atf faces. so pete and i have made six policy recommendations that we think could improve the situation if we were ever going to get serious about doing a gun

market disruption strategy and shutting down. the first has been mentioned many times today require in the execution of all private sales through federal firearms licensees. in most states, there are no back room checks or transfer of paperwork generated on the secondary market sales. we clearly have a major loophole to which criminals can exploit acquiring guns through secondary market sales. it needs to be shut down. another part of this reform would be trying to improve the ridiculously cumbersome procedure that atf has to abide by in tracing firearms. those of you not familiar with the procedure, when they recover a crime, they get the serial number and manufacture, figure

out who that gun was sent to. they called the distributor, and other wholesale and that they may have to call. eventually they get the license dealer. they call them and say okay, who did you sell the kind to? an incredibly inefficient system that could be easily fixed without establishing a national registry of firearms and firearms owners, but having reports serial numbers of transaction at the ssl to atf and if you are able to do this electronically using the web is porto, you could be some of the stuff they show on csi this you actually can't do in real life. clearly a very important reform. other things you might want to consider as part of this is expanding the multiple sales tax in ways along the southwest border stay with firearms so we can also have hopeful sales on

assault weapons and other concerning long guns. the second policy recommendation is you really need to enact an effective firearms to version our trafficking statute. the two most commonly used, even though there is close to 40 different statutes available to atf and making gun trafficking cases come in the two most common statutes used or engaged in the business of selling firearms without a license or falsifying the atf form 4473. both are very difficult to prove. for example in the kern report, he would have been those investigations were atf agents what if some are investigating teaching and dealing that advice and violation, only viewable to church and 38% the cases.

also find the 4473 farm, only boat to charge that important% of the cases because they were very difficult prove in the instance that engage in the business of the firearms license, you could stand to sell it if a private rocket for my collection, passing him on but nothing illegal. i'm not making any profit from the spirit and not engaged in the business in a way that is consistent with the law. therefore i don't need a license. anyone who's seen a purchase should be a violation could easily say, i had the gun, make what i wanted. so i sold it to daniel in the secondary market. i don't know if i notice adenovirus, but i run into them, i will let you know. no exaggeration. very difficult to prove someone actually falsified the foreign and is making a purchase for somebody else.

there needs to be an effort to dissolve the much more effective federal statute that establishes them access to criminal activity and also starts thinking about what a threshold number of illegally diverted firearms would be. with that, you ought to revisit sentencing guidelines as well. i think it important to recognize the harnesses needed with the illegal diversion of firearms. if anyone can generate a sale in this does a tremendous amount of harm. this legendary firearms recovered in the city of boston. the boston police department to the ballistic imaging, entered into the system and it came back to 14 other crimes enforce a decent two states and a one year. pick an incredible amount of harm from one firearm. straw purchasing and falsifying paperwork statutes reflect the great potential for harm the

sky's house. also, if you investigating a corrupt license dealer, record-keeping violations making false entries can affiliate to keep the required paperwork are actually misdemeanors and that needs to be upgraded to reflect the harm associated with these kinds. it's incredibly important for jurisdictions to develop and implement personal crime protocols. people talk to us about more. unfortunately, too many one-person agencies are not tracing all the firearms they cannot entered enter in all the firearms, not collecting dna and trace evidence enemies to be a system in place for your comprehensively maximizing information you're getting from firearm, not only took criminals accountable, they determine where they are coming from. incredibly important to be comprehensive in this. very important is to create a

strong effect to atf. atf is underfunded, with a stable leadership by special interests. atf definitely needs its budget expanded. it's been stagnant for the last 10 years, it only increasing marginally. gun trafficking strategy needs to be shielded for politics beneath stable leadership. i recommend going on out of session playback for something like what the fbi did have a position appointment for a fix 10 year terms would be about the political frame. also critically important for jurisdictions to have access to crime gun information. you want to publish as they did before the national crime country singapore for city level analyses of time. it is very important to academic involvements in the production

of those reports. some of the special analyses. the magic returning having actual investigators with their detailed knowledge of criminal enterprises operate collaborating with academics, their ability to bring in outside i can analytic tools and unbiased perspective to what is going on, the knowledge created. reestablishing not in the reforms allowing cdc and nih, maybe expanding budget for pen research will be important as well. so if are able to do some of these, to a great degree, all of these recommendations come at a lot of obstacles necessary for firearms to be removed. you can think about launching a real attack on the workings of the gun market. obviously appropriate investments need to be made. legislative changes and we need to improve our knowledge base on the workings of markets and what

might work shutting down that amount of time. [applause] >> i'm going to ask anthony's colleague, pete gagliardi to share some of his thoughts and experiences as a retired atf person and also -- >> shortcoming i've anthony's good friend peered for two weeks he's been screaming at me over this. so look, very short and sweet here. it's not a time. the fact is, investigators need data and information to identify offenders and apprehend them.

when that information rises to the level of evidence, prosecutors need that information to prefer charges and try the offenders. every time an avenue is closed off to an investigator, a door is slammed here. were no longer able to access the data. one armpits tied behind our back. we have a database are supposed to be collecting vital information and is full of leaky holes, another armpits tied behind her back. so on and so on, and until we are deprived to so much information, all we can do the common theme today has been the availability of good data to

sow, calls to do more harm. that may tell you a little true story that was started for an bring us all together. this is the way things should go every day. a black nissan pulsar full text sure streetcorner on blackstone avenue. the driver 69:00-millimeter out the window and fire sentry group of men standing on the corner, a man named keith lunenburg, 19 years old was stone dead. at a time that police got there, there's no one around but some nine-millimeter cartridges on the ground. except the cartridge case is any

guide to the to vienna llanelli a crime lab and are entered into the network at atf provides its state and local part nurse. since for national integrated holistic subornation network. they did a search to the database, but there's no matches found that day. password eight years later, 2003, chicago police officers are following a lincoln town car they thought that was suspicious. they stopped the car. one thing leads to another. a couple gang bangers in the car. lo and behold, the gun gets c's, a glock nine-millimeter pistol. because of the good process is still in place, that gun goes right to the illinois timeout,

testfired and the test fires search through the database and this time there is a hit, a match. now police now attack nics from from that lincoln town car ways that gun used to kill bloomberg eight years before. the problem is that the people driving that car in possession of that gun eight years before were probably 10 or 11 years old they couldn't reach the pedals of that lincoln town car. frankly i have a problem reaching the pedals on a lincoln town car myself. but what's happened here is police depended on information and data available to them from

the inside of the gun, the ballistics data to determine what crime that gun was used to commit. but now they were stymied. so what do they do? they turned to the outside of the gun. they made models hillier number, nomenclature, describe kerry's that gun dealers are required to keep in iraq. , that allows atf in its state and local partners to conduct a crime gun traces and that's what they did. they trace back luck nine-millimeter to a woman named chandra. during that investigation, they learned chandra had bought a couple other guns turned up in crimes over the years. atf in chicago police officers interviewed chandra and she said after a while that she brought

the gun for her boyfriend, samuel cox. she's a female cox is a convicted felon. can buy the guns themselves, so she bought them for them. police david samuel cox was an enforcer for the black gangster disciples in chicago. frankly, chandra was in a little trouble, so she was becoming more and more cooperative and she gave the atf agent in chicago police detect this key information. she said about eight years ago, two girlfriends came inside with how your car on blackstone avenue in a shooting. the next day we received a telephone call from somebody and they told us if we told anyone what we sow, we would be next. for eight years they kept her

secret. right now, chandra was in trouble. simcox, her boyfriend was out and about somewhere. chandra gave the name of her two girlfriends to the chicago police are chicago police in atf detectives go interview those two women and they give the agents another piece of valuable information. the name of the person who is sitting in the passenger seat of the nissan pulsar whose side hancock state the nine-millimeter out the window and kill keith bloomberg. it was an too much longer before they were what we call to foot the individual. he testified in court and sam cox is where he belongs, serving the rest of his life in the illinois correction system. that's a good day.

doesn't always work that way. for example, we trace the gun today, like the one used to kill keith bloomberg. he seemed a good chance of getting a report that, but that gun is facile five, 10, 15, 20 plus years ago. good luck trying to find that original purchase. we lose track of these things. we are denied information. our information source and at a brick wall. most likely that gun had changed hands a number of times since then, maybe even for legitimate transfers, where there's records in some gun shop somewhere that could have given us another lead, but we lost track. the chain was broken and we can't bridge the gap. yet many times we do get lucky. many times, especially in the

case of short time to country says, then it's our job to go up and knock on the door and say hey, i'm from ats. i'm connecting the firearms trace. did you purchase a firearm? yes, i think i did. what happened to a? these are all things that people have actually told me and i have colleagues in the audience i'm sure they can verify this. i don't remember what they did with it. i don't have to tell you. i'm not response both for keeping that information. the gun was stolen the same day i bought it, but i didn't bother calling the police and this is my favorite. this is absolutely true. some friends and i were on a raft. this is true, paddling towards an island on the housatonic river in connecticut.

the rap capsize. the gun fell overboard in saying to the bottom. it was an rpp industry semi automatic, look just like a mac tend and somebody had converted it to a machine gun and that's what happened in its pentagon had been used just some months before. so at atf agents and state and local partners coming in now, a strong atf is something waianae, but we also can't forget a strong state and local partner. police budgets have been cut and the format of the system is tipped, it doesn't help anyone. you have to have this whole law-enforcement team has got to be strong. atf agents find creative ways to work around this. try and make their trafficking cases, using a variety of both overt and covert methods. takes time, takes resources.

in the end come in the case may or may not be made. sometimes even when a case is made, the next job we have to do is get prosecuted and then we start up another hill. getting a prosecuted depends on a number of variables. if the case does get prosecuted and the offender from the tape, that a sentencing. msn or convicted for a crime like we've been talking about all day, falsifying a form, dealing without a license, i doubt that even today, when a person is charged with those types of crimes, that the tragic consequences we saw we chandra's

gun, if you were chandra being sent and, the guidelines would not reflect those tragic consequence is on what chandra did with her guns and what they were used for. i would say she'd get probation. today, with tools that are ballistics network i talked about, we cannot crimes, guns and suspects. we can also told the court for sentencing purposes that this gun was used to kill those people. we can do that. with tools like e*trade, ats electronic tracing system, we can follow the gun as it moves to the various sets of hands, sometimes falling right into the hands of the shooter. thanks sam cox in chicago.

in addition, when they look at countries information collected over a period of time, we can analyze that for strategic purposes, to look at patterns and trends. once we can understand patterns and trends, that's when we understand the gum market, the conditions come in the situation our region. to do all this, we have to balance it. we have to balance people, processes and technology, jessica three-legged stool. if one is too short, the stool falls over. if one is to launch, the stool falls over. they must be in balance to hold the weight of what we're trying to accomplish. to do this, one person at nice continue supporting resources in order to sustain the tracing of

all guns and their processing. thank you. [applause] >> thank you, pete. i'm going to take this time out to open it up for some questions or comments. for anyone on the panel this afternoon so fire. we have folks again in the aisles of microphones. >> first of all, thanks to the organizers and participants had been so fabulous this morning. my question is a wonder anyone has the financial effects of these various regulations on gun dealers because that's the claim i often hear. i asked because of a public health professional, couldn't

care to gun dealers make less money, but as a citizen interested in starting some local discussion several new hampshire and letter to the editor campaigns, i know that is something we would hear and i don't know if that claim is doing now, but if you likely have to be ready to respond to that. >> garen, due out in answer to that question quite >> i have a partial answer, but i'll follow you. >> and california, we have an independent licensing system. we have not mandatory, frequent extensions and themes that are required to do, putting processing on this private party tales. they're allowed to charge a fee for that ending much of that fee was negotiated and seen as equitable. as retailers have been asked specifically the question, do it to start processing private

party sales, they seem to be of two minds. those who grumble about the paperwork. everybody assumes they be allowed to charge for services and that's only reasonable. one thing that doesn't come up often is the least for this, there is likely an outstanding benefits to retailers and i'll paraphrase what one retailer said. ..

another question or comment? >> hello, is a constituent of maryland, i'm pretty lucky that most are in favor of the regulations that we have discussed today and the restrictions on purchasing guns that would minimize the gun violence. however, the congress members of other states are not necessarily on the same page. so what can be of help to bring understanding so we make clear why it is vital to pass this on a federal level? >> that is a great question, and certainly one that many people working on the political side of this struggle with all the time. i'm going to pass this on to my colleague and let him have a try at this point.

>> one of the things that we hope will help is a summit like this and resulting book with the research evidence that the university has committed to placing on the desk of every member of congress. and also of the staff. you also heard mayor bloomberg say this morning that you can't rely just on the fact that your elected representatives are in favor. you can write to them and say merely that i want to vote for this, what you have to do is write to them and say, i want you to use your influence to persuade others to use your influence as chair of the appropriations committee or as a senior member of the minority party in the house of representatives. it is more than just about that we have to ask of our elected officials. we have to ask her leadership as well. >> i will just add on to that. my own feeling is that to get

some change along the lines, i think you were suggesting that it will require more gun owners to speak out in favor of common sense regulations. i think that the politicians who feel like they have to work hard for their nra a+ ratings would maybe feel less like that is necessary if they had another group of gunowners who could validate what they can civil to be regulations on firearms. as has been alluded to, but we will go into more detail tomorrow, the vast majority of gun owners are supportive of most of the measures that we are talking about here. and i think that's the most critical thing. again, a politician being able to say that they are doing something that the gunowners

agree with. because they don't want to alienate gunowners who vote. >> i have a question. i just got a documentary on saturday called the house that i live in about the war on drugs and it talks about how there have been like 45 million arrests and a trillion dollars spent on that war. what impact do you think the war on drugs has had ongoing violence? a lot of accidents happen -- any thoughts on the war on violence and gun violence issue? >> i will just try to give a brief response to that. there has been some different things looked at in regards to anti-gun trafficking. they show more often than not that they lead to harmful impacts, meaning more violence.

there are better ways to go about directing illegal drug problem. what we are talking about today with respect to the market is for people to really understand that even though some of the individuals might be the same individuals who are engaged in legal drug enterprise, those markets are very different as anthony indicated in the data suggests. where is the law enforcement intervention focuses on illegal drugs and is often counterproductive of outcomes, invariably the effort to disrupt illegal gun markets have had the opposite. to reduce the flow of guns to criminals. so there are different markets and i don't want to go into a

seminar on microeconomics, so i will stop there, but i don't think there are people who are skeptical or, you know, question the war on drugs which means we can't go address legal gun markets. i think they are different things and you get different outcomes when you approach it. >> i would like to add something to your question. when i started with the atf, it was in the mid-1970s. at the beginning, i worked a lot of undercover trying to determine where guns were coming from. at that time i found that most of the guns that i was buying undercover were secondary market guns. they were banging around for a while, some of them were stolen because they had been reported stolen. others could have been stolen,

but they might not have been reported crêperie. in any case, they were older guns, secondary market guns. all of a sudden, in the mid-1980s, everything started to change. groups of criminals were buying new guns and smuggling them as we try to understand what that was that kind of spread throughout the country. started down there and it spread. as these gangs started competing for territory, and there was lots of money to be made, they didn't need to get guns from the secondary market.

that is where i personally saw the change. that continues today because the drug market is still robust. as it was then. do you have anything to add to that? >> with another question. >> hello, thank you. my name is nancy robinson and i'm from boston. i'm talking about something professor anthony braga said. does anyone have a figure that would speak to the profitability for the gun industry of selling

them through the illegal market? >> i do not have that information readily available. when there were lawsuits against the gun industry, there is actually some effort to do precisely what he suggests. so that information is not out there. >> we will make this collaborative and problem solving. we have a national bureau of research group that looks at the extent to which the industry oversoul guns into the southeast. knowing that one would connect the dots. the question is if they knew. does anybody in the room now? i don't think so. >> that kind of research has been done recently or in part because it was being done to

support fully dedication of municipalities. and therefore they are to be responsible for cost of crime that the cities were bearing, those kinds of lawsuits have essentially dried up and so has the demand for that kind of research. >> hello, i was involved with some of the litigation. research showed up to 22% of manufacturers are relying on that. 22% of the output guns eventually to the criminal

market. that research became impossible once you access to the data were stopped. >> thank you, rebecca. >> do any of you know whether there has been any effort on a grand scale the mobilize through training, training offered of deputies and troopers? >> are they involved in the market, is that what you're saying? >> yes, when they take them into custody, are they asking the right questions are passing it off to someone else to fall upon. >> okay. >> particularly at the local level. >> there are some places that really make this a priority. it really depends upon the local

police commissioner to what degree he or she makes a priority. anthony and david have both had a lot of experience in this. david shipman is a former atf official and joins our panel discussion now. thank you, david. anthony, yummy, and? >> thank you for your question, sheldon. many organizations over time have really spent a lot of effort trying to train local police. as we have heard today, atf is a very small agency. in fact, there are many special agents at atf as the phoenix police department has sworn officers. you can imagine that without local partners, they are limited in what they can do with complex efforts today. during the time where we had

projects, there was much training where officers were not only trained about how to trace the gun and encouraged to do so every time it is recovered, but also the joint task forces and those efforts have unfortunately dwindle. there is not as much training as there it once was. we have not dedicated that effort. a lot of police officers do not stay in the profession on. they go on to other efforts. >> what they end up doing is training all their officers and handling the crime scene to ensure that they look for all of the possible crime related evidence. every single firearm gets traced so they have that comprehensive

information. when someone is arrested in possession of a firearm, they make sure they are debriefed and can try to work some of those underground street markets and figure out how guns were moving about the neighborhood. it is nothing that is standardized across the country to . >> on the horizon regionally, we try to encourage it. imagine all departments within a region of the state and then they can develop with their partner agencies next-door. >> as i have been sitting

through the last several hours listening to the various recommendations that we have and in many ways we hear echoes about what michael bloomberg said earlier in terms of the kinds of regulatory interventions in the gaps that we now have in these regulations of the industry, both on the supply and demand side. i suppose my question is -- and perhaps this is an unduly question because this assumes that we would get all of the proposals that are being discussed. i am interested in the dynamic changes in what they would be to the nature of the gun industry that would then create new regulatory challenges. for instance we know that we have 300 million handguns that are out there. and we know that there is some subset of consumers who are

going to work feverishly to avoid the regulatory qualifications or adherence to them, both on the supply side and the demand side. we know that we have the internet for offshore purchases and so forth, and we know that we could have an even more robust and very market than the one we have now. so what i am worried about is that the industries that we have today, the structure that we have today, will changed dramatically were we to get this regulation adopted. and then the question is if you only have a moment to get the right regulatory structure, is what we're proposing comprehensive enough to deal with the dynamic effects of the changes in the industry that we are likely to see in light of this package that was proposed earlier today and has been, to

varying degrees, reinforced throughout deliberations? >> would there be some sort of modification by industry that it would in essence negate what might happen due to regulations? >> [inaudible question] will it changes the way that consumers and suppliers in the industry currently operate.

>> we are not in that world yet, but we do have some evidence what states do they get close to what the recommendations are. i'll certainly one would anticipate some adaptations in that marketplace, whether you are talking about the more formal industry or the more underground market, again, this market is not like the job market. yes, people are making money in it, but they are not getting enormously rich. he placed in this -- you don't have to stop every such sale, but because the problem is so large, i do think you could have an impact. i think many of the things that are being proposed in terms of federal reforms, in terms of

having better laws to go after stock purchasers and traffickers, to me it is a pattern of evidence from research that i reviewed earlier and have conducted. it suggests that it would be effective. the current state-by-state system gives us some impact. but you get so much more you could actually institute that a full federal level. so i am reasonably optimistic that you could disrupt the illegal gun market, make it harder for criminals to get guns, and i think that there is a wonderful study that was led by bill cooke looked at the underground gun market in chicago and found something very surprising, which was that it's not nearly as easy to get it

done in the underground market than many people believe. and that that is due in part to some of the law enforcement procedures that we just talked about. the chicago police department really has focused on guns for a very long time in a very aggressive way. and that seemed to play out in the underground market. so i will let deren finish up on us not beekeeper bringing this up. i have heard two things today that i think that we have done a very good job responding to read you have mentioned them both. we all said that this did not go far enough. it left out the private sector market and i don't think we know if the things we are proposing go far enough or not. i have continuing concerns and i speak only for myself.

have we been self trained for so long to think so little that now we are not thinking big enough? i'm capable of thinking much bigger than us when we come back to the basics of a public health approach, which insists, among other things, that much be done at the same time so that we don't squeezable in one place only to have it pop up in another. and i think an array of complementary actions are being proposed here that would make it fairly difficult even for a malevolent industry. it would make it difficult even for a malevolent industry to thrive in illegal commerce.

one example number one maker of semi automatic pistols in the united states were all makers of saturday night specials. all those companies were owned by members of single extended family they were all located in the same place in southern california. the opportunity that presented was taken advantage of. in that industry went out of business in southern california and no one filled the gap. there is basically a manufacturer -- a small network and quartered in ohio. but nothing like there was before. i don't think that gap went unfilled because the industry woke up and said we are not

going to sell the stones. i think there were concerns about liability. the other thing i want to bring up, the headquarters of the national shooting sports foundation, which i have visited, a 3.2 miles, a seven minute drive from sandy hook area the morning after sandy hook, thinking about that, i went to their website. their website is to have a roster of employees and they had picture and brief bioof each employee. and that was taken down. this was their neighborhood elementary school. the kids, the employees kits kids and acquaintances were probably there that day. and nobody has connected the dots yet.

but in regards to the industry's intellectual hub, and i refuse to have that labeled as an oxymoron, every senior executive in the industry knows the people and that means that every senior executive in the industry is not all that many degrees of separation away from a kid that was at sandy hook elementary school that day. looking at geography in the structure of the industry, nothing has been said. i suspect in ways that i certainly do not know, this may be, yet again, a unique thing. i'm hoping there someone in the room who does have an in with the industry because i think there is an opportunity that we might be able to say this was in her your yard, you need help on this one.

>> i saw many frustrations under this current structure. if we had a format where there was a criminal background check required on any transaction, these photos of people lingering outside gun shows, transferring guns, as a law enforcement agent, we would immediately know that a crime was there. the problem is we have a dealing without a license keys. so i can tell you within that structure, to me there is a much better hope and chance to actually enforce the attention of the flaw. there are some unintended benefits, i believe, for a structure that requires guns to be sold by dealers. obviously, this would have to be countered by more regulators

with atf inspectors they could go and make sure the framework and paperwork was being followed. but to me, we have yet to approach this in a reasonable fashion. i think at that point, the learning begins. >> i think that is a great point to and on. i would like to thank my fellow panelists here. we are going to take a 10 minute break so that folks can be back at 3:56 p.m. [applause] [inaudible conversations] >> tonight, a panel discussion on gun violence and gun-control measures with remarks from rahm emanuel and former congress member steve schreck. we will hear more about

preventing gun violence. and the more tonight on c-span2. in observance of the mlk holiday on monday, children gathered at the lincoln memorial today reads from his i have a dream speech. he gave his speech at the site nearly three -- 30 years ago. this is one of many events taking place in the nations capital area. >> a state sweltering in the heat of injustice will be transformed into an oasis of freedom and justice.

>> [inaudible] >> i have a dream that one day down in alabama, there will be no implications, one day in alabama little black rows of black boys will be able to join hands with white girls in white boys and sisters and brothers. [applause] i have a dream today. i had a dream that one day everyone will be free and the glory of the lord will be revealed. this is our hope and the faith that we have. this is our hope and the faith

in the southland. >> we would like to change the discourse of our nation and we will be able to work together and stand up together knowing that we will be free one day. and this will be the day. this will be the day when all of god's children can be together. >> [inaudible]